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08/08/2008 - Bloomfield Hills Township, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When most comprise a list of "fluke" major winners in recent history, inevitably the same names always appear.
Todd Hamilton, Shaun Micheel and Rich Beem might make that list.
Unfortunately, 2003 British Open champion Ben Curtis might as well.
"I know I can win another one. It's just a matter of taking care of the opportunities that I'm given," said Curtis, after a three-under 67 on Friday. "Because if you sit here and think about winning another major, I'll be thinking about it for the rest of my life."
Curtis is in great shape for another major title. His 67, which tied for lowest round of the PGA Championship, put him in a tie for second place, just one out of the lead.
"I think the big thing is I only hit seven fairways, but it seemed like a lot more than that because if I did miss the fairway, I was in the first cut or in the bunker on four, where it was a fairly easy shot," said Curtis. "So I think that was the key."
Back to Curtis' "fluke" win at Royal St. George's. He topped Thomas Bjorn and Vijay Singh by a stroke, and even though Bjorn could not get out of a bunker on Sunday afternoon, Curtis posted a two-under 69 in the final round. Only three players shot better rounds on that final round.
Fast-forward three years and Curtis collected two more PGA Tour wins. He couldn't defend either title the next year since both the Booz Allen Classic and 84 Lumber Classic left the tour's schedule.
"I think I've proven that I can play out here," said Curtis. "To me that's all that matters."
This is not the first time Curtis has threatened a leaderboard at a major since hoisting the claret jug five years ago. Earlier this year, Curtis tied for seventh at the British Open, but there are no comparisons he said, especially with the wind.
"Between here and the British, it's totally different," said Curtis. "Even with the wind blowing 15 to 20, it's like nothing compared to what we played in over there. If it blew 40 miles an hour here we would be sitting in the clubhouse because it would be unplayable; the ball would just run off the green."
Whatever the conditions, Curtis just seems to raise his game to the major level.
"I love majors. I think that I try to suit my game around that," said Curtis. "Obviously it's the four toughest tests we're going to have all year. And I just feel that I'm fairly straight driver of the golf ball, so if I can keep it in play, then it all comes down to putting."
RYDER WOES
The PGA Championship represents the last opportunity for American players to automatically for eight spots on the Ryder Cup team.
With Stewart Cink, Phil Mickelson, Kenny Perry, Jim Furyk and Anthony Kim assured spots, and Justin Leonard just about a lock, that leaves two places up for grabs at Oakland Hills.
Boo Weekley and Steve Stricker occupy the final two spots, but there can be quite a bit of movement with so many points on the line due to the PGA being a major.
In theory, if an American club professional could have won the Wanamaker Trophy, he could have made the Ryder Cup team.
While the first eight will be finalized by Sunday afternoon, captain Paul Azinger has four picks to make. That won't happen until September 2nd so that gives three events for what becomes essentially a try-out for U.S. players.
"It doesn't matter to me when they play or where they play," said Azinger earlier in the week. "I'm going to look at who is hot."
Weekley and Stricker safely made the weekend at the PGA Championship.
It was not a great week for some of the gentlemen who headed into the PGA on the bubble.
Woody Austin in the ninth spot (actually 10th, but since Tiger Woods won't play the Ryder Cup, the automatic spots go to places two through nine) missed the cut at plus-18.
Hunter Mahan is next and he has the weekend off since he finished two rounds tied for the worst score by a non club professional at 20-over par. Zach Johnson in 14th position also missed the cut.
D.J. Trahan could get in there and take Stricker's spot. Trahan, 11th in the standings, is in at plus-three. Rocco Mediate is 12th and made the weekend, while Sean O'Hair is 13th in the adjusted Ryder Cup standings and is tied for seventh at two-over 142.
Nick Faldo has three weeks before his European team is finalized and with Sergio Garcia in position for at least a good finish, the Spaniard should play his way on.
One player who will most likely need one of Faldo's two picks is Darren Clarke. After being one of Ian Woosnam's picks two years ago after the death of his wife, Clarke is honest about whether he'd even tab himself.
"At the moment, probably not unless I do something pretty good in those last couple of tournaments," said Clarke. "That is a realistic view, at the moment I probably wouldn't."
Clarke said he won't play next week, but is scheduled to compete in the next two after that.
Colin Montgomerie is in serious jeopardy of missing his first Ryder Cup since 1989. He shot a 14-over 84 on Friday to come in at 20-over 160, matching Mahan for worst score by a non club professional.
The typically testy Montgomerie didn't enjoy a question that suggested most of the fans would love to see him in the biennial competition, even though he appears to be in danger of missing out.
"So I'm not on the team, am I?," Montgomerie said to the reporter. "Sorry, I didn't realize you looked like Nick Faldo, I apologize. I'm sorry."
* Vijay Singh could have had an outside shot at making the cut, but a disastrous run with the putter on the treacherous ninth took the chance away. He putted his birdie try off the green, then eventually three-putted from six feet for a five-putt and a triple-bogey six. Singh, who won last week's WGC- Bridgestone Invitational, shot his second straight, six-over 76 and finished at plus-12.
* Charl Schwartzel of South Africa was 11-over at the turn and appeared to be in serious danger of missing the cut. He birdied one and two, but bogeyed three to stand at plus-10. Schwartzel birdied his next four holes and bogeyed nine to safely make the cut thanks to his second-nine, four-under 31.
* Paul Goydos became the first player ever drug tested at a major championship on Thursday. He must not have minded. Goydos, who lost a playoff to Sergio Garcia at The Players Championship, shot a one-under 69 and is tied for 14th at plus-three.
* Despite inclement weather in the forecast, the second round was contested without a delay and no weather materialized.
* Jerry Kelly is the only player to miss the cut in all four majors this year. Charles Howell III did not get to the weekend in the first three, but a 76 on Friday was enough to get into the weekend on the number at plus-eight.
* The par-five second has been the easiest hole of the championship, playing to an average of 4.6913. The par-five 12th is the only other hole under par with an average of 4.8489.
* The hardest hole has been the 498-yard, par-four closing hole. It has played to an average of 4.6688.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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